Friday, February 4, 2011

Keeper Strength Rankings

This chart shows the teams who have established the best set of keepers. Granted, it might be slightly skewed depending on which players I chose off every team but it is impossible to know who everyone is going to pick with all of their keepers. So I chose the player I think were the best on everyone’s team.

I made these rankings and grades by first looking at current ADP reports for a few different websites. I combined the three website rankings to place an ADP number on each player. I then chose the highest ADP values for four players on each team. I combined the ADP values for the top four players on each team and that is how I ranked the “Talent”.

Example: Pujols (ADP-1), Voto (ADP-4), Halladay (ADP-21), Bautista (ADP-40) = Overall ADP 17

The “Value” is ranked and graded by looking at the ADP number for each player. I then placed a number on each player for which draft pick they are currently being kept with.

Example: Youk is the 148th overall pick in our draft, but his ADP is 27. The difference is 121. The combined total numbers for every player is used to establish each team’s keeper “Value”.

The “Overall Grade” takes into account both “Talent” and “Value”. This is personal opinion, but I place a much higher rating on the talent portion than the value portion. So what I did was triple the talent grade and combine it with the value grade. The outcome would be the final GPA.

Example: Duke received a B+ for talent and a C- for value. (B+)+(B+)+(B+)+(C-) = B (GPA-2.90)


Anonymous said...

Worst Analysis Ever?

B Rose said...

I see where you're going with some of this, and a part of me agrees with alot, but I must say that if your keepers are gold, then the value should be higher. $100 dollar bill may only be worth $100 bucks....but its still $100 bucks and puts you a hell of alot closer to riches than Jhoulys Assman!

Jeremy said...

Anonymous!? show yourself!

Yeah the rankings will definitely change. Just trying to rank the top keepers. If people will let me know who all of their keepers are then I will be able to get a better ranking together. I would drop down on this list because I only have 5 keepers and someone who has 8 would probably go up... But it is impossible for me to predict everyones top keepers.

Rose, that's exactly why I valued talent much more than the value. If I valued them the same then you would have been last on this list, but obviously not the case.

Jeremy said...

I value the Bats more this year than in years past… So screw whatever you guys think! My gut tells me the ranking should be more like this:

1. Seth – Has #1 player, and is very deep in keepers 1-7
2. Boz – Longo, Braun, Morneau are very strong but they fall off at the end
3. Rose – top 4 keepers are top 2 or 3 round talents. But fall off after that. Stras as a keepers is a wasted keep but you have to do it. Has awful value for all keepers that keeps im from moving up the list.
4. Dave – three potential 30 hr guys but then lots of youth. Also has great value with no keeps til rd 7.
5. Jeremy – top 4 keepers are top 3 rd talents; not having two keeps hurts, but how much? Value in some picks hurts.
6. Mike – Where are the stud keepers? Awesome value but too much trust in youth. Not enough guys you can trust with the #’s
7. Duke – solid keepers. Also has 8. Needs another stud to have elite keepers.
8. Pat – The numbers say he ranks high but I don’t trust the players (too much injury risk)
9. Steve H – One power bat and two stud pitchers. Too much youth after that
10. Steve D – Tulo and VMart then there is a HUGE fall off. There is good value in the other keepers though.
11. Rego – No true studs. Morales is the biggest threat. Only has 6 “real” keeps
12. Joe – Hamilton then nothing. Has 8 keepers but the value just doesn’t seem to be there. Trade away keeper spots or get better keepers.

Anonymous said...

Boz made the best trade, and rego inherited a shit show. Give them time, and as long as they stay away from trading away power hitters, they can build their base.

Mr. Anonymous

joe said...

I love how you glance over the fact that I traded one of the best keepers but "only" got a keeper spot in return. I got that and a 2nd round pick. This analysis is futile because there is no way for you to rank the value that teams got in return (in the form of higher draft picks, keeper slots, etc) for the talent that they traded away. I'm not really sure how I have nothing beyond hamilton but we'll see how the season plays out.

Jeremy said...

that is why it is called keepper strength. Where do you rank yourself?

Anonymous said...

Jeremy is a dictator, that is all.

B Rose said...

So I realize that for some reason I still don't have much respect in this league, but I just don't understand how I basically proved last year that draft picks mean DICK! I had like 2 picks in like the first 15 round or something.

I personally believe that in a 12 team league its all about acquiring as many studs as you can (however you can), then filling it out with role players that will get the job done.

Take all the Brandon Phillips' and Ichiro's in the first couple rounds you want, I'll use my high draft slots on Crawford, Gonzo, and Felix....then get some random second basemen in the 12th round that'll do exactly what Phillips does, or close to it.

Oh and spare me the stat posting. We all know (or should) that yearly stats mean a heck of alot less than they're perceived to be. Sure a guy may have 30 home runs, but if he has like 10 or something in the first month, then 20 the rest of the way, spread out over a year its not much.

Head to Head kids...this ain't rotisserie.

Dave said...

Brian, you got lucky with Rios having such a good year. Then benefited from making trades. You traded to get Gonzo and you were also able to get a good deal from the ability to move Beltre who you also got lucky with.

Its not like you've been dominating the league since it started. Hell two years ago you got LUCKY to be in the championship because of a wack tie-breaker and the inability of my team to score a single run on the final day of our match.

Last year you built a huge lead in the regular season and got your ass kicked when playoff time came.

So shut the fuck up you pompous arrogant toenail eating prick.

Anonymous said...

Toenails? Really?

This message board is devolving fast, Jeremy better moderate it quick!

joe said...

brian, thanks for the useless analysis

jeremy, i'd prob rank myself where you did, my point was simply that given the trading of keeper spots and draft picks simply ranking teams by "keepers" and ignoring the draft options of teams offers little future predictive insight

Dave said...

Yeah but Joe, just like Jay said he's only offering this as keeper strength. He's not giving analysis on who he thinks is best set up draft picks and keepers together.

Since you brought it up, who has the best draft pick/keeper mix in the league. Give us something else to debate.

P.s. I think its Seth just because of how strong his keepers are and the fact that he was able to secure another 1st round pick and still has his second.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Seth is once again the man to beat. I am taking huge risks to try to get to that next level. We will see how it ends up.

Jeremy said...

Brian, thank you for you wisdom. I have learned so much from your post. Your analysis that yearly stats "don't mean DICK" has really opened my eyes. I would have never thought of that before you said it.

Also, you are once again on the ball... Draft picks don't mean anything. Your team did absolutely amazing last year. I am definitely willing to use your incredible stategey moving forward.

B Rose said...

Wait, Jeremy, isn't Morneau a BIT too injury prone to be analyzed so high.

I actually expected him to not even be kept.

Btw, considering putting Felix and Wainright on the block. No, not cheap, but I'm listening.

Anonymous said...

Brian, you will get an offer, then counter with "Your first round and your first male child" and no deal will get done.

Trades with Brian take time and patience, like dealing with puppies.

Dave said...

I'd rather deal with a gremlin.

Anonymous said...

Can you repost this with more pictures so Pat can understand it?

Dave said...

Pat doesn't even know how to use the blog. And I think you and I are the only ones left looking at the blog page anyway.

Anonymous said...

no i am too

- joe

Anonymous said...

Pat thinks a blog is a disease you get from a hooker